Are you tired of the hype in the fantasy football industry?

Tired of everyone claiming their strategy, cheat sheet, player list, and analysis is different only to find it looks just like all the others? Well, I'm here to change that.

What I am about to show you is going to fundamentally change the way you think about fantasy football.

No hype. No gimmicks. No marketing tricks. This is not just a new angle to sell you the same old products. (Yes, I have products to show you after the analysis, but you get the analysis first, no catch.)

You can take this knowledge with you and apply it to your own cheat sheet or even apply it to some other site's products. No matter what you do with it, understanding this WILL make you a better fantasy football player.

To teach you this concept, I'm going to dive into the biggest myth in fantasy football...

Never draft a defense or kicker until the last two rounds.

First, very quickly, a little about me... I didn't set out in life to be a fantasy football analyst, I just wanted to win my own leagues. I developed my own cheat sheet (which turned out to be really unique so I patented it) and I developed my own strategies and analysis - strategies and analysis that sometimes go against popular opinion, but have led to me winning 2.5 times more than the average person.

Now back to the myth... never draft a defense or kicker until the last two rounds.

This is what people say...

1) Kickers and defenses are too unpredictable…

2) Kickers and defense don’t give you any advantage…

3) There are too many upside players available instead…

Let's jump right in.

Let's jump right in.

Kickers and defenses are too unpredictable…

Let’s look at Stephen Gostkowski’s end-of-season rankings from 2009 to 2015…

Pretty… pretty… pretty good.

But that’s ancient history. And Gostkowski was just an outlier anyway, right?

Let’s look at 2019’s top kickers and their recent performance…

Our top-ranked 2020 kickers… surprise, Harrison Butker, Justin Tucker, and Will Lutz.

Top kickers are surprisingly predictable! And they rarely bust to a level that tanks your team.

That predictability falls off quickly though… if you can’t get a top-three kicker, you might as well wait until the very end of the draft.

I know, nothing earth shattering... yet. The second part of the myth is where things really get interesting.

Kickers don't give you any advantage...

First, we have to understand what 'advantage' really means.

Our goal is to score more points than our opponent each week, we know this.

But when we’re drafting, we don’t know what players we’ll be up against each week…

So we have to assume that we’re playing against a team full of the average starters at each position. Some weeks we’ll be facing better players, some weeks worse… but over the 16-game season we’re, on average, playing against a team full of the average starters at each position.

Our goal, then, is to have more above-average players than our opponent has.

So, this means player value can be measured as how much better than average that player is…

Example:

- In 2019, the top-12 RBs scored an average of 292 points.

- Christian McCaffrey scored 469 points, 176 points more than average. Meaning every week of the season, on average, Christian McCaffrey gave you an 11-point advantage over your opponent!

If you take away nothing else, make sure you remember this next part!

If you have the top WR and that WR scores 20 points per week, but receivers 2 through 12 also score 20 points per week, you've gained no advantage! The 12th WR is just as valuable as the 1st WR.

But if you have the top TE and that TE scores 20 points per week, and tight ends 2 through 12 only score 15 points per week, every week you're going to have a 5-point advantage over your opponent's TE.

In these two scenarios, that makes the number one TE far more valuable than the number one WR.

In fact, that would make WR the least valuable position in fantasy football.

It wouldn't even matter if the WRs scored 100 points each week - the closer the scoring range between the players is, the less valuable that position is. Contrarily, the higher a player scores in comparison to all other players at the position, the more valuable that player is.

This is why, in Rob Gronkowski's heyday, he was the most valuable fantasy football player in the league.

Obviously not all players are going to score the same as in the WR example, but remember this idea of weekly advantage as we talk more about the value over average concept.

Let's look at how this concept played out in 2019 for kickers. We'll look at how many points the top 12 kickers scored over the average kicker. And we'll break down how those points contributed to weekly advantage (kind of like win-share or plus/minus in basketball).

How this works in real life... If you have Harrison Butker and your opponent has Wil Lutz, you've only got a .1 advantage, but for at least 8 weeks of the season you'll be facing someone who has Zane Gonzalez down to Chris Boswell. In each of those weeks, if you have Harrison Butker, you'd have an advantage of 1.8, 2.0, 2.1, 2.2, and so on... ever lost a week by less than one or two points?? I certainly have!

This weekly advantage of one to two points doesn't look that significant, until you see what is next...

When we look at the players who gave you the most weekly advantage in 2019, we see three kickers in the top 24!

Are you paying attention yet?

Our top two kickers were more valuable (contributed to more weekly wins) than players like Ezekiel Elliot, Austin Ekeler, and Jameis Winston.

All three top kickers were more valuable than Derrick Henry, Julio Jones, and Chris Godwin!

Does this mean you should go draft Justin Tucker before Derrick Henry and Julio Jones?

No! But should you draft one of the top-three kickers way before the last round? I sure would.

A fantasy point is a fantasy point is a fantasy point... whether that point comes from a kicker or a wide receiver or a tight end...

Remember our goal is to draft the players that give us the best chance to have a weekly advantage over our opponent, even if that advantage comes from the kicker position.

After seeing this, do you really think you need to draft your third backup wide receiver before getting your kicker?

Most championship teams end up with only about 50% of their drafted roster...

Why skip a top kicker, who gives you a significant weekly advantage, to get a player who will likely be dropped and, even if kept on your team, will only rarely crack your starting lineup?

But your sleeper is going to be a star, right? More on that later.

Okay, I'm listening, but kickers aren't really consistent, so that's why people draft them last, right?

Kickers may not have the consistency of the very top RBs, but let's look at one example...

Justin Tucker was not only more valuable than Derrick Henry and Julio Jones, but more consistent too!

Before we jump into the third part of the myth - there are too many upside players available instead - I want to give you the cliff-notes version of the above analysis for defenses.

1) Defenses, as the myth suggests, indeed are not very predictable…

2) But if you get lucky and get the top ones you can get a significant advantage each week!

3) Regarding upside picks, fantasy football is about making educated guesses… we’ll look at this more next, but guessing the top defense is no harder than guessing who the late-round, upside WR will be.

Because defenses are not very predictable, but the top three kickers are surprisingly predictable, kickers are actually more worthy of an earlier-round pick.

Most leagues see defenses drafted in the 15th round and kickers drafted in the 16th round. But now you know better!

The last part of the myth... there are too many upside players available in the late rounds to draft instead of defense and kicker...

We'll look at this a few different ways, looking at 2019 data.

The scatter plot below shows every player in 2019 that was undervalued (drafted later than their end-of-season rank, 55 out of 192 players).

The x-axis shows the round the player was drafted in. And the y-axis shows the difference between their ADP and their final rank.

For example, the purple dot in the top right was drafted in the 16th round but finished around 170 spots higher than that!

What jumps out at you when you look at the scatter plot?

1) All those green dots… kickers were among the most undervalued players!

2) Those blue dots on the bottom left… very few upside RBs in the later rounds (confirming RB as the most important position to draft early).

3) Those purple dots… you can get WR upside from many of the late rounds, but there aren’t nearly as many as you've probably been led to believe.

Dots are nice, but names are better... let's look at who the most undervalued players actually were last year.

You can see defenses taken as early as the 10th, 11th, and 13th rounds! And kickers were taken as early as the 13th round. So, some people, despite all of us laughing at them, were indeed drafting defenses and kickers earlier than most.

And guess what, even when being drafted in the 13th rounds, they were still among the most undervalued players!

Okay, I get it, kickers are valuable, but what if my sleeper WR hits it big?

We’re really only concerned with WR sleepers since we know upside RBs aren’t available in later rounds, and, if you read my other content, you won’t be drafting a backup QB or TE, and you’ll already be getting a top-half TE in the earlier rounds so you won't be targeting a late-round TE sleeper.

So when we look at all the undervalued players (we’ll say WRs taken 10th round and later count as sleepers) we see 6 WRs who finished the season inside the top 36, meaning they were good enough to routinely crack your starting lineup, but only 3 really made a difference.

So what has to happen for you to get one of those players?

1) You have to guess right on who the six players will be…

2) You have to hope they hit their upside before you drop them for bye weeks or other waiver pickups…

3) You have to hope they hit with enough upside to routinely crack your starting lineup…

And even then, we know their weekly advantage isn’t likely going to be as high as top kickers or defenses. DeVante Parker went from the 16th round to finishing the season ranked 6th! Scroll back up and look at the top 24 players list... even he, one of the greatest sleeper picks of all time, isn't above our top-three kickers!

How does this make you feel?

Do you still feel like the chance of hitting a late-round WR is worth passing on a top kicker or defense?

Let's recap...

There aren’t as many late-round upside players as you may believe…

Those players were found scattered throughout the late rounds (and we didn’t even talk about undrafted upside players!) so whether you go defense or kicker early or late, you still have the same chance to hit on an upside player.

A lot has to go right to hit on one of those upside players.

Our three kickers were drafted “early” in the 13th, 14th, and 15th rounds and still made up 3 of the top 6 most undervalued players…top kickers are the true upside players!

A top defense is more valuable than an upside WR, but you have to make the right guess (just like you have to on late-round WRs).

Should you draft two top defenses hoping to hit a top one, rather than drafting another backup WR... perhaps! That would be a true play-to-win move!

I hope I delivered on my promise to change the way you think about fantasy football, with no gimmicks, no marketing tricks, and no hype.

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